Science reveals the secret to extreme wealth: SHEER DUMB LUCK.
“The results are something of an eye-opener. Their simulations accurately reproduce the wealth distribution in the real world. But the wealthiest individuals are not the most talented (although they must have a certain level of talent). They are the luckiest. And this has significant implications for the way societies can optimize the returns they get for investments in everything from business to science.”
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610395/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/amp/
@h That’s the rich-get-richer aspect of the power law. The dumb luck winners have subsequent advantage in winning more opportunities and, as you say, block others.
@tbeckett
According to Malcolm Gladwell, many of them are not gambling. Is a debate called for?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/01/18/the-sure-thing
@jhertzli Exactly. The rich get richer. The first lucky win puts them in position to take advantage of subsequent opportunity. That’s the power law described in the article.
@tbeckett Two key points:
1) Just because you run a simulation based on luck and it produces similar distributions to what we see irl doesn't mean that's the causal relationship.
2) We actually know that humans and mammals in general prefer games with a luck component. Changing the reward system to either pure luck or pure effort might work in a computer simulation but with real humans it's the combination that's been shown to motivate most powerfully.
@byronalley Certainly there are lucky ones who do not retain wealth. But motivation alone is not often sufficient when pitted against the resources of the already-lucky.
@tbeckett Missing from this analysis: How is it possible that minorities and women are invariably underrepresented?
Mere luck would imply completely aleatory distribution, so you should see demographic composition of lucky ones mirroring demographic composition of society.
But that's not what we see. What we see is that people who win more are people who are backed more often by capitalists
(i.e. their own kin)