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feel *exactly* like crypto did in 2017, with nearly daily articles about how it can't possibly work, and a die hard community earnestly pleading "but you just don't UNDERSTAND!"

The main difference is that there *are* reasonable use cases. They're just far smaller than people want to admit.

@scottjenson

Been hearing about all the positive use-cases *in the abstract* for years now. Never specifics.

Certainly, no use cases that are mission critical (driving, medical diagnosis, weapons deployment), though, due to the endemic hallucination problem—not without expert human review (such as senior programmers, or scientists) of the output.

Which means, at best, a replacement for a *bunch* of junior-level jobs.

Meanwhile the anthropomorphizing of AI companions proceeds apace.

@Mark_Harbinger @scottjenson LLMs can very obviously replace the first tier of phone tech/chat support--basically walking a checklist but accounting for fuzzy input. They're doing this today on all sorts of websites.

They are almost ready to replace drive thru cashiers--some places rolled it out and it had glitches, but I honestly think they'll be there in the next 12 months. It's not mission critical if the bot screws it up and it's cheaper for the restaurant, so of course it will happen.

@stilescrisis @Mark_Harbinger The problem is that most companies are looking at as a way to save money instead of improving the product.

Most corp boosters are falling all over themselves to slash jobs. Theses attempts have already failed badly and likely continue to do so as they don't understand what they are trying to replace (Classic mistake)

If, as you suggest, it's an upfront triage that *still* leads you to a human, but one which is now better prepared to help you. That's cool

@scottjenson @Mark_Harbinger Not necessarily? A request like "reset my password" could be entirely level-one tech support serviceable, thus fully automatable. And of course, drive-thru ordering isn't up-front triage, it's the whole enchilada.

Scott Jenson

@stilescrisis @Mark_Harbinger I think we have a fundamental disagreement on what is "easy".

Note I'm not saying LLMs are doomed or useless! I'm saying "tasks are not as trivial as you think they are". I'm all for trying and learning. I've just been around the block enough to know that things are ALWAYS harder than you think they are.